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Hellena's Circus of Fate (sGE) has been updated with Elite Le Blanc (1 Gold Token), AR32 weapons (1 Gold Token), Dragon Heart Recipe (1 Gold Token), Lv.96 elite armor (40 Tokens), Expert stance book (20-60 Tokens), and more. There will be 6 more sets of premium items to be updated every few days. See Santa Hellena's Christmas Special for event details and HCOF Premium Prizes for item lists/costs.

There are also a few new (10 min) buff items - Red Lollipop (Movement Bonus), Black Lollipop (ATK bonus, Movement/ATK Speed Penalty), Pink Lollipop (ATK Speed Bonus), Blue Lollipop (DEF bonus), Halloween Candy (EXP Buff; see here), and Rainbow Lollipop (Movement & ATK Speed Bonus).

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i tried the game last night, 40 tries and no gold tokens. i have a feeling i know how the game works. the cards are NOT prearranged. rather, the chance to get a gold token is predetermined (a small chance, say 1%). the chance for the other tokens is predetermined too e.g. 1 token - 80%, 2 tokens - 10%, 3 tokens - 5%, joker - 4%.

when you click on a card, the program will show u what token u got and then randomly generate some other different cards to make it look like it's a fair game. in reality, it is NOT.

the fact that there are 10 cards there makes it seem like u have a 10% chance of getting a gold token. this is clearly not the case. i clicked on the same card 40 times just to prove this point. statistically speaking, the chance of NOT getting a gold token 40 times consecutively is 0.9^40 = 0.0147808829%. i know i'm not that unlucky, and neither are YOU. yes you, the one sitting at his computer wondering why the hellena card always pops up next to the card he clicked.

for the less statistically inclined among us, think of it this way. i have 10 cards with me and one is the ace of spades. i shuffle the cards and ask u to pick one. you have a small chance of picking the card with every chance, true. but if i asked u to pick 10 times, the chance of never ever picking the ace of spades is small. if i asked u to pick 100 times, the chance of never ever picking the card is very, very small.

for those who say, oh the gold token doesn't appear every round, think about it. even if the gold token appears half the time, if the cards were really prearranged, that's a 5% chance to get it. have u been getting an ELB every 20 tries? i think not.

kudos to IAH for thinking up another money-grabbing scheme. i'm not complaining, i find it quite exciting to play actually (even though i only got tokens). just warning those among u who think that u have a 10% chance to get an ELB with every click. it's clearly not the case. [Source]

Adding on, in casino, the cards they deal are set in terms of a specific number of set of decks and IS in physical form. However HOFC are in digital form hence one may not tell if the cards generated are truly in % of possibility or is it rigged. [Source]

I decided to buy 1x 84k gpts to try it out after feeling tempted. I clicked the same card over and over as I thought my chances of getting a Jackpot would be higher. However, I noticed the repeat of patterns of the card.

Example sequence:
1 - 3 - 2 - Joker - Joker - 1
Jackpot - 2 - 1 - Joker

I get this sequence for more than 3 times by clicking the same card over & over.
It is not pure coincidence to get all 10 cards in this same order above more than twice. Many other sequences are repeated to ensure you get 1 or Joker most of the time. I'm very observant to notice this..

Conclusion
This means no matter which card you chose, the probability of getting 1 or Joker is very high. If I were to turn back time and click on that Jackpot card (that I knew it's a Jackpot), that card would probably switch to another card (Joker/1/2/3) and become another sequence. So I felt it's not fate like the game title.. it's scripted. >_< Putting Jackpot card there only make us believe the chances of getting a jackpot is 10%. (1 out of 10 cards) The fact is, it is not. The reality is probably lower than 1%. It is there only to make us false believe and lure us to think that, "It's so close! Why didn't I click that card?! I want to try again." Feedback: I suggest the tech to make it more fun by making it totally random. Meaning, the cards are really shuffled & placed down. Then, whatever we choose will be the card that is suppose to be underneath. This will really make the Jackpot 10% which is suppose to be (If 1/10 card is a Jackpot card). This is better than making it "scripted sequences" onto making us believe that we chose the 1 token/Joker card when in fact, I get that 1 token card from probability chance & other 9 cards are just for show. [Source]


100% EXP Boost & Cash Shop Promotion
There is also a 100% EXP Boost from Dec 17-23, 2009 for all sGE players. See The Red Affair for details. See also Bookfest iCash Promotion (Dec 11-20) for freebies when buying iCash cards at Suntec (Singapore).

Players who follow sGE Twitter can also get free Rudolph Hats from Dec 19-25. See here for details.

Update: Added screenshot of ELB and quotations from forum. The new buff items will also be updated as they become known. Added free hats.

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